Myanmar’s future, Mideast fighting hang over ASEAN talks

What Happened

ASEAN foreign ministers gathered in Manila on Tuesday for meetings joined by counterparts from the US, China, Japan, Russia, and others, with Myanmar's reintegration into the bloc a central source of tension. Thailand, represented by Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow, has led a push for Myanmar's return, announcing that junta leader Min Aung Hlaing will visit Thailand in August and stating it is 'best to bring Myanmar back into the fold.' Earlier, Thailand hosted a meeting that included Myanmar's foreign minister alongside some ASEAN counterparts. In contrast, Malaysian Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan reiterated that Malaysia remains opposed to high-level talks while 'oppression is still taking place.' ASEAN's five-point peace plan for Myanmar remains stalled, with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos having called for a 'fine-tuning' of the plan in May.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

ASEAN's approach to Myanmar's civil war tests the bloc's cohesion and credibility, as the junta's exclusion and the stalled five-point peace plan underscore deep divisions between members like Thailand, which advocates re-engagement, and Malaysia, which demands an end to oppression first. The meetings in Manila are a litmus test for whether ASEAN can forge a unified stance or if the conflict will continue to fracture regional diplomacy, while the planned visit by Min Aung Hlaing to Thailand in August could signal a potential shift in the bloc's isolation policy.

Watch For

Monitor the outcome of the ASEAN meetings in Manila this week for any joint statements or decisions on Myanmar, including potential adjustments to the five-point peace plan. The scheduled visit of Min Aung Hlaing to Thailand in August 2025 is a concrete event to watch for signs of diplomatic normalization or backlash from other ASEAN members and international actors.