Myanmar’s coup leader-turned-president wins back neighbours despite war

What Happened

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, leader of the State Administration Council (SAC), has conducted a series of diplomatic visits to ASEAN member states, including a recent trip to Malaysia where he received an honour guard welcome. During this visit, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim stated that Malaysia would assist in Myanmar's reintegration into ASEAN and facilitate the repatriation of Myanmar nationals, including Rohingya refugees, using naval vessels. This follows similar visits by Min Aung Hlaing to Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos since April, as well as engagements with Russia, Belarus, China, and India. Monitoring groups estimate that the ongoing civil war has resulted in 100,000 deaths and 3.5 million displaced persons.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The diplomatic outreach by Min Aung Hlaing suggests a potential erosion of the regional isolation policy previously maintained by ASEAN. Analysts suggest this shift provides the SAC with international legitimacy despite ongoing reports of human rights abuses and the military's inability to regain control over significant territory in Rakhine, Chin, Kachin, and Karen states and the Sagaing region.

Watch For

Future diplomatic visits by Min Aung Hlaing to Indonesia and Brunei, as well as any concrete developments regarding the repatriation of Myanmar nationals from Malaysia and the potential formal reintegration of the SAC into ASEAN high-level meetings.