Lebanon’s displaced begin to return home, but some have nowhere to go

What Happened

Following a June 17 US-Iran memorandum and a Friday framework agreement between Israel and Lebanon, thousands of displaced Lebanese are returning to their homes in southern Lebanon, but widespread destruction and ongoing Israeli military operations have left many stranded. The second Israeli military escalation, which began on March 2 after Hezbollah fired rockets and two days after the assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, killed at least 4,247 people, wounded over 12,000, and displaced 1.2 million, according to figures cited by Al Jazeera. Displacement centres in Beirut, including a waterfront tent camp and the Beirut Sports City Stadium, are emptying, but individuals such as Ali Saleh from Jwaya and Rami Mustafa from Choueifat remain unable to return because their homes were destroyed or they lack income. Israeli strikes persist at reduced frequency: a drone strike killed three in a vehicle in Nabatieh on Thursday, troops set fire to homes in Ain Arab, and two were killed in Nabatieh al-Fawqa on Friday with another killed on Saturday. Lebanon’s Finance Minister Yassine Jaber estimated at least $3-4 billion in damages since March, on top of $7 billion from the 2023-2024 conflict. Reconstruction and the return to border villages are key issues in ongoing Lebanon-Israel negotiations this week, but no timeline for rebuilding has been set under the framework agreement. Israel continues to occupy a ‘Yellow Line’ zone extending roughly 10 km into Lebanon, preventing residents of those villages from returning even if homes are intact.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The return of over a million displaced people is a critical bellwether for the durability of the US-Iran-brokered framework. Failure to enable reconstruction and full Israeli withdrawal from the 10-km zone risks chronic instability, renewed displacement, and potential escalation. Lebanon’s cumulative war damage—now exceeding $10 billion—deepens an economic crisis that could fuel further unrest.

Watch For

Monitor the outcome of direct Israel-Lebanon negotiations this week, specifically any agreement on reconstruction timelines and Israeli redeployment from the ‘Yellow Line’ zone. Watch for any increase in Israeli strikes or Hezbollah retaliation that could stall returns and jeopardise the framework.