Lebanese army unlikely to effectively eliminate Hezbollah , IDF commanders say

What Happened

IDF Northern Command officials assess that the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) is unlikely to effectively clear Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon, citing a high proportion of Shiite soldiers unwilling to confront the Shiite group. Consequently, the IDF will not withdraw from any point in southern Lebanon until the LAF initiates a pilot program to remove explosives, weapons, military positions, bunkers, and tunnels built by Hezbollah and Iran over approximately 20 years. The LAF is expected to provide a readiness date in the coming weeks. During a visit to the security zone last week, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Israel Katz, and other senior officials were briefed on the situation. Meanwhile, the IDF says it has destroyed about 100% of buildings in villages in the western and central sectors of southern Lebanon, and 73% in the eastern sector, as engineering destruction of Hezbollah’s infrastructure accelerates daily.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The IDF's stance signals a potentially prolonged military presence in southern Lebanon, undermining the ceasefire arrangement if the LAF fails to act. The high destruction rate in border villages raises humanitarian concerns, while Israel's distrust of the LAF—rooted in Hezbollah's deep entrenchment—could stall diplomatic efforts and risk renewed hostilities. The dynamic tests both the viability of the Lebanese state's authority over its territory and the durability of the truce brokered by the U.S. and Europe.

Watch For

A concrete date from the LAF in the coming weeks for commencing clearance operations, as that will determine whether the IDF begins to withdraw. Monitor whether the LAF actually deploys to front-line villages and confronts Hezbollah, or whether the pilot program stalls. Any escalation or Hezbollah retaliation against the IDF's ongoing infrastructure destruction while awaiting LAF action could alter the situation. Also watch for diplomatic interventions by the U.S. and France to pressure Beirut.