IRGC manufactures espionage fears in Jordan despite low public opinion of Islamic Republic

What Happened

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a statement via its affiliated Fars News Agency claiming that Jordanian civilians provided intelligence that enabled attacks on US military positions in Jordan. The IRGC specifically alleged that this cooperation led to the destruction of 20 warehouses in the Al-Azraq region and damage to US C17 transport and P8 command-and-control aircraft at Aqaba Airport, killing dozens of American forces. Jordan denied evacuating the airport, and the article notes that the IRGC's claim appears to be a propaganda effort to suggest local support, but expert Ronen Yitzhak stressed that Iran lacks any real support base in Jordan due to a negligible Shia population, hostile public opinion, and effective Jordanian intelligence cooperation with Western agencies.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The IRGC's claim represents a propagandistic move to suggest grassroots support in Jordan amid the Gaza war, but expert analysis underscores Iran's difficulty in operating there. This disinformation attempt aligns with Tehran's broader strategy of destabilising Jordan and exploiting regional conflicts, while the strong rejection by Jordanian public opinion and intelligence services highlights the limits of Iranian influence in a key US-aligned monarchy. The episode also points to the ongoing opaque proxy war dynamics between Iran and the US in the region.

Watch For

Monitor for official US or Jordanian responses to the IRGC's claims, any independent verification of reported attacks on Al-Azraq or Aqaba Airport, further IRGC propaganda efforts targeting Jordan or other Gulf states, and assessments by think tanks or intelligence agencies on Iranian espionage activities in the kingdom.