Israel says IDF is staying in southern Lebanon, undermining Iran peace talks

What Happened

Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz stated on stage in Tel Aviv that the IDF will not withdraw from southern Lebanon, calling the continued presence a 'political achievement' and claiming there is 'no American demand for Israel to withdraw'. His remarks echo Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and directly contradict the spirit of a US-Iran accord signed last week that extended a fragile ceasefire and set a 60-day timeline for permanent peace talks. Iran’s parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, insisted that 'an end to the war in Lebanon is as important as an end to the war in Iran,' linking the Lebanon front to the broader negotiations. Amid this, a US-mediated ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah on Saturday has largely halted fighting, though exceptions persist: an Israeli drone strike killed two outside Nabatieh on Wednesday, according to the Lebanese Ministry of Health. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, on a three-day Gulf tour, is reassuring allies—including the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain—that the Iran deal will not provide a windfall to Tehran or allow it to control the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran partly closed during the four-month war. Gulf states worry the accord, including a proposed $300 billion fund and sanctions waivers, could enable Iranian military reconstruction and future threats.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

Israel’s refusal to withdraw from southern Lebanon undermines the US-Iran diplomatic track, which Iran has explicitly tied to a Lebanon ceasefire. The standoff risks reigniting full-scale hostilities with Hezbollah, complicating US mediation and eroding Gulf trust in Washington’s security guarantees. Concurrently, Iranian threats to close the Strait of Hormuz and demands for transit fees threaten global energy markets, with Gulf states—already battered by Iranian strikes—facing severe economic fallout. Rubio’s tour aims to bridge these rifts, but divergent interpretations of the accord among Israel, Iran, and the US could collapse the fragile ceasefire and restart broader regional war.

Watch For

Monitor the next 60 days of US-Iran talks for permanent peace: whether Israel halts operations and begins a phased handover of southern Lebanon to the Lebanese army; Hezbollah’s response to continued IDF presence, including potential rocket fire; Rubio’s joint statements with Gulf allies after his visits to Kuwait and Bahrain; and any Iranian moves to restrict or toll the Strait of Hormuz. Also watch for a formal US demand for Israeli withdrawal, which Katz claims is absent, as a pivotal diplomatic signal.