Israel’s security doctrine sees Arab states as ‘collections of tribes’, says ex-intelligence chief

What Happened

Tamir Hayman, a reserve major general who led the Israeli army’s Military Intelligence Directorate from 2018 to 2021 and is now executive director of the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), published a paper on Monday by the Tel Aviv University-based think tank. Hayman wrote that Israel’s security policy since the 7 October 2023 attacks has been guided by an unwritten, not formally articulated concept holding that most Arab states are 'collections of tribes and ethnic groups' lacking genuine national identity, that any arrangement with Arab actors is temporary and deceptive, and that peace agreements are technical and temporary. He listed 10 inferred principles, including pursuing security through communities and outposts in 'all areas of friction with the Arab population, in Judea and Samaria [the occupied West Bank], and in security zones in Syria, Lebanon, and the Gaza Strip,' and viewing the United States as a declining power that should be severed from. Hayman described the paper as 'a subjective, theoretical and deliberately exaggerated interpretation' intended for debate.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The paper offers a rare, high-level articulation of a possible ideological shift in Israel's security doctrine after the 7 October 2023 attack. If accurate, it implies Israeli policy may deprioritise peace agreements, encourage instability in neighbouring Arab states, expand settlements in the occupied West Bank, and reject Palestinian statehood — with direct consequences for ceasefire diplomacy, US-Israel relations, and the legal status of Palestinians.

Watch For

Monitor whether Israeli officials publicly adopt or disavow the principles Hayman outlined; watch for further INSS debate and responses from government or military figures; observe whether settlement expansion in the occupied West Bank or security-zone activity in Syria, Lebanon, or Gaza accelerates; track any change in US-Israel relations or formal Israeli annexation moves.