Israel’s security doctrine sees Arab states as ‘collections of tribes’, says ex-intelligence chief

What Happened

In a paper published Monday by the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), Tamir Hayman, former head of the Israeli Military Intelligence Directorate (2018–2021) and current INSS executive director, wrote that Israel’s security policy since the 7 October attacks has been guided by an unwritten “concept” holding that most Arab states “are not genuine nation-states, but collections of tribes and ethnic groups lacking a shared history and a foundational national vision”. Hayman set out 10 principles he said could be inferred from the policy now being implemented. Among them are the assumptions that “any arrangement with Arab actors is temporary and deceptive” and that “peace agreements are merely technical and temporary arrangements requiring constant reassessment”. Hayman wrote that this new concept “has not been formally articulated or presented to the public, nor is it bindingly defined within the defense establishment”, but that its principles inform decision-making and dictate Israel’s approach to security.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The reported concept frames Arab states as inherently unstable and agreements as temporary, which could shape Israeli decisions on peace treaties, normalization, and ceasefire frameworks with Arab actors. If accurate, it suggests a doctrine of constant reassessment rather than durable commitments, with potential implications for mediation efforts involving Egypt, Qatar, and other regional states after the 7 October attacks.

Watch For

Watch for any official response from the Israeli government, Prime Minister’s Office, Ministry of Defense, or IDF to Hayman’s characterization, and whether Arab governments or mediators named in the concept publicly react. Monitor whether upcoming ceasefire or normalization discussions reflect the described principles, and whether a formal doctrinal document or policy statement emerges from the Israeli defense establishment.