Israel might not be able to collapse Iran , Hamas regimes , expert say

What Happened

In a 103FM interview on Wednesday, Dr. Col. (res.) Michael Milstein, senior researcher at Tel Aviv University’s Dayan Center and former head of the Palestinian arena in Military Intelligence, stated that Israel might not be able to force the collapse of Hamas in Gaza or the Iranian regime due to the deep ideological fanaticism of these groups. Despite significant military blows, he argued, these organizations have not collapsed, and fundamental change would likely require an internal Arab Spring-style movement rather than Israeli action. Milstein also commented on US-Iran talks in Switzerland, warning that Hezbollah interprets perceived US and Israeli frustration as leverage to demand a return to the pre-October 2023 equation, including an end to Israeli offensive activity and a full withdrawal, not just tactical pullbacks. He noted that Qatar’s involvement as a mediator in the Lebanese arena, similar to its role in Gaza, is welcomed by Hezbollah.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

Milstein’s assessment underscores the limits of military force in achieving regime change or ideological defeat, a core strategic dilemma for Israel’s campaign in Gaza and its broader confrontation with Iran’s axis. It also highlights Hezbollah’s attempt to exploit diplomatic dynamics to regain strategic parity, complicating ceasefire efforts on the northern front and potentially reshaping the negotiation framework.

Watch For

The outcome of ongoing US-Iran talks and a potential Israel-Hezbollah framework by Thursday, as referenced by Milstein; Hezbollah’s public response to any diplomatic outcome; and whether Qatar’s mediation role in Lebanon expands, influencing negotiation dynamics.