Israel is killing the people who could end its wars

What Happened

This analysis piece argues that Israel has repeatedly assassinated figures capable of negotiating an end to its conflicts, thereby removing interlocutors and often producing harder successors. It cites former MI6 chief Sir John Sawers telling the Financial Times in early September 2026 that Israel deliberately killed Ali Larijani in March 2026, not because Larijani ran Iran's war effort but because he was among the few Iranian figures able to reach an acceptable deal. The article links this to a pattern: Lehi's killing of UN mediator Folke Bernadotte in September 1948; the November 2020 killing of Iranian nuclear figure Mohsen Fakhrizadeh weeks after Joe Biden's election; the February 1992 killing of Hezbollah's Abbas al-Musawi, succeeded by Hassan Nasrallah; and the July 2024 killing of Hamas political bureau head Ismail Haniyeh during ceasefire negotiations, after which authority passed to Yahya Sinwar and the negotiating track collapsed.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The argument suggests a strategic logic: by eliminating credible pragmatists, Israel avoids deals that would stabilise adversaries it views as existential threats, but risks creating harder successors and manufacturing evidence that negotiation is futile. This matters for the trajectory of the Iran-Israel war, US off-ramps with Tehran, and the prospects for Gaza ceasefire diplomacy, as it highlights how assassinations can foreclose rather than enable settlement.

Watch For

Monitor Israeli official responses to Sawers's assessment; any direct evidence or attribution for the Larijani killing; Iranian succession and its negotiation posture; further assassinations of political or diplomatic figures in Iran, Gaza, or Lebanon; and the impact on US-Iran diplomacy and any renewed Gaza ceasefire channels.