Israel has the power to dominate , but not to lead the region

What Happened

An analysis by Middle East Eye argues that Israel’s extensive military operations since 2023—dismantling Hamas’s military infrastructure, killing Hezbollah’s leadership, occupying parts of Gaza, Lebanon and Syria, and striking Iran’s missile and nuclear programmes—have failed to translate into regional hegemony. Instead, these tactical victories have exposed a reality of ‘naked domination’ sustained by US support, with legitimacy eroding across multiple dimensions. The article asserts that Israel’s economic integration, while showcasing high-tech and cybersecurity success, remains subordinated to American ecosystems, with the shekel not a reserve currency and dependence on US aid exceeding $130bn since 1948. Around 90,000 Israelis left the country in 2025 for three or more consecutive months, and Israeli tech firms increasingly hire abroad—a trend that began during the 2023 judicial-reform crisis, signalling a vote of no confidence by the very professionals driving Israel’s structural advantage.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The assessment highlights a widening gap between Israel’s military power and its standing as a regional leader, challenging the narrative of a ‘new Middle East’ shaped by the Abraham Accords. If Israel remains a veto-wielding actor but not a consensus-builder, it risks deepening isolation even as it maintains security dominance, with Saudi normalisation blocked and diplomacy over Iran’s nuclear programme proceeding without Tel Aviv. The erosion of Israel’s ‘human capital’ and the reliance on US life-support could compromise its long-term strategic resilience, reshaping power dynamics in ways that empower other mediators such as Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey.

Watch For

Concrete developments include the outcome of US-Iran nuclear deal negotiations, which are being conducted without Israeli participation; whether Saudi Arabia maintains its preconditions for normalisation amid US pressure; enforcement actions related to ICC warrants as Netanyahu travels; the durability of the ceasefire imposed on Israel in Gaza; and any further shifts in US public opinion or aid policy. The trend of Israeli emigration and the performance of its tech sector under prolonged conflict will serve as leading indicators of domestic capacity.