Israel eyes return to Gaza war within months, Channel 12 reports

What Happened

Israel expects a return to fighting in the Gaza Strip within the next two months, potentially before the October elections, according to a Channel 12 report. Citing Israeli officials, the broadcaster said the US-led 'Board of Peace' is expected to conclude within two to three months that Hamas has violated the October ceasefire agreement by refusing to disarm. Such a ruling could pave the way for Israel to renew raids in parts of Gaza outside its current control. Channel 12 also quoted a political source as saying the board's director-general, Nikolay Mladenov, had considered declaring Hamas in breach two months ago but postponed the move at the request of mediators. The source stated that if nothing changes within three months, Mladenov will declare Hamas in breach. The Board of Peace, chaired by US President Donald Trump, was established in January under a US initiative to secure a settlement in Gaza, following the ceasefire that ended what MEE describes as a 'two-year genocide' in which Israel killed nearly 72,000 Palestinians. Despite the ceasefire, Israel has repeatedly violated the agreement, killing over 1,000 Palestinians since, expanding the buffer zone, and restricting aid. Hamas has refused to discuss disarmament until Israel fulfills its phase-one obligations.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The prospect of renewed fighting threatens the fragile ceasefire and could escalate into a broader conflict, deepening the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. The Board of Peace's potential ruling on Hamas's compliance would provide a diplomatic trigger for new Israeli military operations, raising fears of further civilian casualties and displacement. The timing, ahead of Israeli elections, adds domestic political pressure that may accelerate decision-making. The standoff over disarmament and phase-one obligations highlights the ceasefire's fragility and the difficulty of sustaining a political settlement.

Watch For

In the next two to three months, monitor whether the Board of Peace formally declares Hamas in breach of the October ceasefire, which could trigger new Israeli offensives in areas outside their current control. Watch for any shifts in Hamas's position on disarmament, Israeli military preparations or incursions, and diplomatic interventions by Egypt, Qatar, or other mediators. The approach of Israel's October elections may also influence both sides' calculations.