Is the Strait of Hormuz still Iran's trump card?

What Happened

On July 7, 2026, Iranian forces reportedly struck at least three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, including a Saudi oil tanker and a Qatari LNG carrier. In response, the United States revoked a temporary sanctions waiver on Iranian oil exports and US Central Command (CENTCOM) conducted two waves of strikes on July 8 and July 9, targeting over 170 sites in Iran, including air defense systems, radars, and more than 60 small boats operated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Iran subsequently launched missile strikes against targets in Bahrain and Kuwait on July 8 and July 9. Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has ceased, according to data cited by Bloomberg.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The collapse of the recent memorandum of understanding and the return to direct military confrontation in the Strait of Hormuz threatens global energy security, as the waterway previously facilitated one-fifth of the world's oil and gas exports. The escalation risks a broader regional conflict and potential economic collapse for Iran, which is already facing record-low currency values and 88% inflation, while simultaneously driving up global oil prices.

Watch For

Monitor the upcoming NATO summit in Turkey for further diplomatic responses from Western allies. Watch for additional US naval movements in the Strait of Hormuz and potential further Iranian missile launches against Gulf states, which would signal a continued rejection of de-escalation efforts.