Is NATO at breaking point as it meets in Turkiye?

What Happened

NATO leaders convened in Ankara on Tuesday for a two-day summit dominated by transatlantic tensions. US President Donald Trump renewed his criticism of the alliance, calling the US financial burden 'ridiculous' and citing a lack of reciprocity after the Iran conflict, where European allies declined to back Washington militarily. On May 1, the Pentagon announced the withdrawal of approximately 5,000 troops from Germany following a review of force posture in Europe. Against this backdrop, the summit agenda focuses on increasing defence investment—European allies and Canada increased spending by a nominal $139 billion in 2025 alone—expanding Europe’s defence industrial base, and ensuring long-term military support for Ukraine. Despite a 62 percent rise in European defence spending between 2020 and 2025, the International Institute for Security Studies (IISS) estimates that replacing critical US-supplied capabilities—long-range strike, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and integrated air and missile defence—would cost roughly $1 trillion and take a decade or more. Experts assessed that a formal US withdrawal remains legally and politically difficult, requiring a two-thirds Senate majority or an act of Congress, with NATO still enjoying broad bipartisan support ahead of key midterm elections.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The summit crystallizes the most severe strain in transatlantic security relations in decades, testing NATO’s cohesion as the war in Ukraine continues. A potential US disengagement could open critical deterrence and defence gaps in Europe, forcing European allies to accelerate self-reliance efforts that face decade-long timelines and trillion-dollar costs. The outcome will shape the alliance’s future posture against Russian aggression and influence the credibility of collective defence commitments.

Watch For

Summit communiqués on defence spending benchmarks, concrete commitments for Ukraine, and any joint statement addressing US demands. Monitor subsequent US force posture announcements in Europe and the rhetoric from congressional midterm campaigns, which will indicate the durability of Trump’s stance. Also track European Commission and national defence industrial initiatives for signs of accelerated capability development.