Is Myanmar's military winning the civil war?

Since the February 2021 coup, Myanmar's military has lost control of significant territory to armed resistance groups but has reversed some losses over the past 18 months through new offensives, drone deployment, and Chinese pressure on ethnic armed organisations to cede ground. Analysts assess the military is "no longer in a state of continuous defeat" and "incrementally prevailing" in its traditional Bamar heartland, though resistance groups remain fractured and the conflict shows no signs of definitive resolution, with tens of thousands dead and over 3 million displaced.