Is Ethiopia on the verge of another civil war as fighting erupts in Tigray?

What Happened

Armed fighting between the Ethiopian federal army and Tigrayan forces has intensified in southern Tigray and spread into the neighbouring Afar and Amhara regions, according to the report, days after seven armed groups announced the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival. The alliance includes the TPLF, the Amhara Fano National Movement, the Oromo Liberation Army, and groups from Somali, Afar and Benishangul-Gumuz; its stated objective is to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government. Small-scale clashes and reported drone strikes preceded the escalation. Tigrayan forces said they were responding to a federal offensive, while the federal government blamed Tigrayan leaders for instigating the latest flare-up. The renewed fighting is tied to unresolved disputes from the Pretoria Agreement, particularly western Tigray, where Amhara forces who fought alongside federal troops in 2020–2022 remain in control and hundreds of thousands of Tigrayans are displaced. The TPLF faction led by Debretsion Gebremichael retook Tigray’s administration earlier this year, displacing the interim administration established under the peace agreement.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The alliance reverses wartime alignments—Amhara Fano forces who fought alongside federal troops against the TPLF are now arrayed with the TPLF against Addis Ababa—and extends beyond northern Ethiopia into Oromia and other regions. If sustained, this could collapse the Pretoria Agreement and reignite a conflict that killed hundreds of thousands and displaced millions between 2020 and 2022. The unresolved status of western Tigray and the presence of outside forces remain combustible, with the government accusing Eritrea of backing the alliance and Eritrea denying it.

Watch For

Watch for whether the federal offensive and Tigrayan response continue or expand further into Afar and Amhara; whether the seven-member alliance holds despite competing western Tigray claims between Tigrayan and Amhara members; whether the ONLF leadership's denial leads to fragmentation; and whether mediators revisit implementation of the Pretoria Agreement, particularly the withdrawal of outside forces and return of displaced people to western Tigray.