Iran war could go 'from zero to one hundred,' Israel is prepared for renewed fighting - analysis

What Happened

The United States conducted another military operation against Iran, prompting Israel to await a potential Iranian response that could include missile fire. US President Donald Trump declared that the agreement with Iran 'is over,' while a security source told Walla that American forces in the region remain in the same formation as before the ceasefire, enabling a rapid transition 'from zero to one hundred' in the event of renewed fighting. The defense establishment assesses that Iran does not intend to return to full hostilities but seeks to 'drag out' negotiations, while also continuing to demand that Hezbollah be included in any ceasefire agreement with Iran—a condition both Israel and the United States refuse. Behind the scenes, Iran is pressuring Hezbollah, but the Lebanese president has not yielded and is advancing a memorandum of understanding with Israel.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The US operation and Trump's declaration risk reigniting broader US-Iran hostilities, with potential spillover into Israel. Iran's bid to link Hezbollah to a ceasefire could legitimize the group's role and hinder Israel's security in Lebanon. The fragile status quo could rapidly escalate, while diplomatic strains create openings for a Lebanon-Israel understanding and increased pressure on Hezbollah.

Watch For

Monitor Iran's response to the US operation – especially any missile launches toward Israel – and whether Trump's administration loses patience amid Iranian provocations. Watch for any shift in US or Israeli refusal to include Hezbollah in ceasefire talks, and track Lebanese President Joseph Aoun's progress on the memorandum of understanding with Israel.