'A paper tiger': Iran sees Saudi, Turkey, Pakistan defense pact as a major win, expert tells 'Post'

What Happened

Experts told The Jerusalem Post that Iran likely views the newly announced Mecca Joint Defense Agreement—a mutual defense pact among Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan—as a major success despite its likely ineffectiveness. On the same day the pact was announced, Iranian deputy energy minister Mostafa Rajabi Mashhadi stated Iran would import 450 megawatts of electricity, and the Houthis, an Iranian-backed group, attacked a Saudi oil refinery. Emirati researcher Huda Albadi described the pact as a 'paper tiger' and criticized the signatories for casting Israel as the destabilizing power rather than Iran, which has orchestrated attacks on Gulf states. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei welcomed the agreement, framing it as a move away from US influence and a united front against 'the Zionist enemy.' Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif separately called for a united military front against Israel. The pact, explicitly built on Islamic relations, may complicate Israeli normalization with Riyadh and reduce Saudi urgency for US security guarantees, according to Dr. Arman Mahmoudian of the University of South Florida.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The pact signals a potential realignment among Sunni-majority states that may normalize anti-Israel postures while failing to check Iranian and proxy attacks, undermining US influence and Israeli-Saudi normalization prospects. Iran’s ability to frame the agreement as a validation of its regional strategy emboldens its axis of resistance and complicates Western security architectures in the Gulf.

Watch For

Future Houthi or Iranian-backed militia attacks on Saudi or Gulf targets will test the pact’s credibility. Any US or Israeli diplomatic response, including shifts in Saudi normalization talks, should be monitored. The pact’s implementation—whether it remains rhetorical or triggers joint military coordination—will be a key indicator of regional power dynamics.