Iran’s war with the US is not its only conflict as internal crises mount

What Happened

President Masoud Pezeshkian has characterized Iran as being in a state of full-scale war, emphasizing that the primary battlefield is the national economy and public livelihood rather than solely military engagement. This assessment coincides with internal social unrest, including public protests in Isfahan against a wave of state-sanctioned executions and widespread criticism of the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) for its alleged bias against diplomatic negotiations with the United States. While reformist figures such as Azar Mansouri and 268 political activists have publicly advocated for a negotiated resolution to avoid a protracted regional conflict, hardline factions within the state apparatus—reportedly supported by elements within the military and the office of the Supreme Leader—continue to oppose diplomatic engagement.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The convergence of Iran's internal economic instability and its external military commitments creates a high risk of a long-term diplomatic deadlock. The internal struggle between reformist advocates for negotiation and hardline factions who view compromise as defeat suggests that the Iranian state may become increasingly entrenched in regional conflicts, potentially escalating tensions with the United States and Israel.

Watch For

Monitor for further public protests regarding the execution of political prisoners and any shifts in the influence of hardline factions within the Iranian parliament and the office of the Supreme Leader. Additionally, observe whether the government attempts to reconcile its policy with the IRIB or if the current impasse over diplomatic engagement with the United States leads to further domestic policy crackdowns.