Iran's 'new Hezbollah:' How powerful are the Houthis now?

What Happened

Since the US and Israel began attacking Iran in late February 2026, members of Iran's so-called 'axis of resistance' have targeted sites associated with the US or Israel, according to the article. The Houthi movement in Yemen, initially mostly on the sidelines, has now launched a military campaign in which Houthi fighters took further control of Yemen's coast and several islands in the Red Sea. The Institute for the Study of War assessed last week that this 'sets up conditions to establish… an axis of resistance-controlled body of water as part of [an] effort to assert control over regional oil exports.' The Houthis also claimed this week to have used a self-modified missile to shoot down a Saudi F-15 fighter jet, a feat the article notes Lebanon's Hezbollah has never achieved against Israeli jets. Iranian state-aligned media, including Kayhan, praised the territorial gains as greatly increasing the weight of Sanaa, the Houthi-controlled Yemeni capital, 'as a branch of resistance in the ongoing regional war.'

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The Houthis are being assessed as a potential successor to Hezbollah as the most strategically valuable Iranian-aligned force, giving Tehran leverage over Saudi Arabia, Israel, and global shipping via the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Houthi control of Red Sea islands and the Yemeni coast could allow Iran-aligned actors to threaten regional oil exports at the same time Iran and the US are already contesting the Strait of Hormuz. This shifts the center of gravity of the Iran-backed network from Lebanon toward Yemen and raises unresolved questions about whether the Houthis act as an Iranian proxy or an autonomous ally, with experts split on the degree of Tehran's command control.

Watch For

Monitor whether Houthi forces consolidate control over additional Red Sea islands or attempt to close or disrupt the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, as Reuters reported Iranian leadership discussed with the Houthis in July. Watch for any confirmed Iranian weapons transfers or command involvement, further Houthi missile or drone claims against Saudi or Israeli-linked targets, and whether Iraqi 'axis of resistance' groups conduct additional cross-border attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure, following the recent attack on Saudi pipelines attributed to Iraqi axis members.