Iran's ballistic missiles were 'never on the table' in US talks

What Happened

Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif stated on Tuesday during Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian's visit to Islamabad that Iran's ballistic missiles were 'never on the table' in US-Iran talks, contradicting earlier US and Israeli justifications for military operations. Sharif, referring to the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), said the issue was 'never on the agenda and the Iranian side never even wanted to discuss it'. He cautioned against 'double standards', noting some countries possess ballistic missiles while Iran is pressured to forgo them. Pezeshkian went further, declaring Iran 'will never compromise on our missile programme and capabilities and this shall never be part of any agreement'. The remarks follow a shift in the US position under President Donald Trump, who conceded at the G7 summit in Paris that demanding Iran abandon its missiles is unrealistic. This divergence from an April 1 US presidential memo that set 'obliterate Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal' as a primary war objective reflects the evolving dynamics after military operations ceased and talks intensified. The US suspended sanctions on Iran on Monday, and both sides held the first High-Level Committee Meeting in Switzerland under the Islamabad MOU, which established a 60-day truce for technical negotiations. US Vice President JD Vance described the talks as 'good progress', and Sharif announced a roadmap toward a final deal within 60 days. Parallel negotiations between Lebanon and Israel began a fifth round in Washington, with the MOU's commitment to ending hostilities in Lebanon complicated by Israel's defiance and demands for Hezbollah's disarmament.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The explicit removal of Iran’s ballistic missile programme from US-Iran negotiations represents a major concession by Washington and removes a declared trigger for conflict. It validates Iran’s long-standing red line and reduces immediate escalation risks between Iran and the US/Israel. The development underscores Pakistan and Qatar's growing mediation role and reveals the gap between initial war objectives and achievable outcomes, as many US goals—like destroying Iran's navy or seizing uranium stockpiles—remain unmet. The move also complicates the parallel Lebanon track, where Israel insists on Hezbollah disarmament, potentially testing the US ability to enforce broader regional de-escalation.

Watch For

Over the 60-day MOU period, monitor the High-Level Committee technical negotiations for concrete steps toward a final deal, especially on IAEA inspections and sanctions relief. Watch for potential friction if Israel escalates in Lebanon or defies the ceasefire framework, challenging the MOU's commitment to ending hostilities. The US sanctions suspension may boost Iran's oil exports; track OPEC and shipping data for changes in Strait of Hormuz traffic. Also observe whether Trump's statements translate into a durable policy shift or face domestic pushback from proponents of the earlier 'maximum pressure' approach.