Iran, Oman, US ‘close’ to Hormuz deal: What do they all want?

What Happened

Negotiations involving the United States, Iran, and Oman to reopen the Strait of Hormuz are reportedly close to an interim agreement. US President Donald Trump stated on Tuesday that negotiations were 'moving along very nicely' and that a deal would be known within 48 hours, while threatening military strikes if shipping does not resume. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said discussions with Oman were 'positive' and focused on safe shipping lanes, but Sepah News quoted an official saying US military threats remain an obstacle. Commercial traffic through the strait has collapsed: only eight vessels transited on Monday, compared to approximately 130 per day before the US-Israel war on Iran erupted on February 28. The proposed agreement aims to restore the June 17 ceasefire and resolve disputes over whether vessels must use an Iranian-mandated northern lane near Larak Island or a US-backed southern lane off Oman, and whether Iran can impose fees—which it frames as service charges—on passing ships. On Tuesday, the UK Maritime Trade Operations reported a cargo ship was struck by an unidentified projectile off Oman, highlighting ongoing volatility.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical choke point that transits one-fifth of global oil supplies in peacetime; prolonged closure risks spiking energy prices and economic disruption. An interim deal could defuse the immediate flashpoint and create an opening for broader nuclear negotiations between Washington and Tehran, while a failure raises the specter of a major US military strike that Trump has repeatedly threatened.

Watch For

Trump’s 48-hour deadline expiring without an agreement, which could trigger military escalation. Formal announcement of any deal or its collapse; Iranian and Omani statements clarifying terms on shipping lanes and fees; actual changes in vessel traffic through the strait; and further security incidents like the reported projectile strike off Oman. A successful deal may lead to revived nuclear talks.