Iran changed the rules in Hormuz. The Gulf is changing the rules for Iran

What Happened

Negotiations between the United States, Iran, and Oman regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remain deadlocked over transit fees and territorial control. While a US official claimed an agreement was imminent, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) rejected this, insisting that passage remains contingent on Iran's specific conditions. Simultaneously, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, a mutual defence pact stipulating that an attack on one member constitutes an attack on all. This development follows reports that Iran launched over 700 missiles and drones toward Saudi Arabia in the five months preceding late March, alongside ongoing Houthi attacks in the Najran region and threats from Iran-aligned Iraqi militias.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The formation of the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement signals a shift in regional security architecture, as Saudi Arabia seeks to diversify its defence options beyond its existing ties with the United States. By linking its security to Turkiye and Pakistan, Riyadh aims to create a deterrent against Iranian proxy warfare and direct strikes, complicating Tehran's ability to isolate individual Gulf states through military or economic pressure.

Watch For

Monitor whether Egypt formally joins the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, which would significantly expand the pact's regional influence. Additionally, observe how Iran tests the new alliance through potential proxy escalations in Yemen or Iraq, and whether the United States and Iran reach a functional compromise on shipping protocols that satisfies both international maritime insurers and US sanctions compliance.