INSS survey : Israelis fear internal violence equally to Iranian nuclear bomb

What Happened

A report published by the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) on Monday, based on three surveys conducted in February and July 2024, reveals that Israelis equally fear internal societal violence and the prospect of Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon. In the July public survey of 968 respondents (weighted to include 20% Arab citizens), 39% selected violent conflict between societal groups and 39% selected Iran’s nuclear ambitions among the top three threats facing Israel over five years, down from 42% and 40% respectively in the February survey of 921 respondents. Concern over a large-scale missile attack on the home front declined from 38% to 35%, while fear of a prolonged war on one front rose from 23% to 27%, and worry about international isolation and sanctions increased from 21% to 26%. An expert survey of 147 professionals from research, academia, defense, and government conducted in February showed markedly different priorities: 67% listed undermining of the state’s democratic character, 58% violent internal conflict, and 44% international isolation and sanctions as top threats. Only 26% of experts deemed Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon likely or highly likely, compared to 43% of the public in July (up from 36% in February). Regarding specific scenarios, 55% of the public in July viewed the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a significant threat, and among experts, 78% considered it a high-level threat.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The survey quantifies a convergence in Israeli public anxiety between internal fragmentation and the perennial external nuclear threat, reflecting deep societal divisions alongside traditional security concerns. The gap between public and expert threat rankings—particularly on democratic erosion and Iran’s nuclear likelihood—may influence policy debates, resource allocation, and the resilience of societal cohesion. This perception data is critical for understanding domestic constraints on foreign and security policy, especially amid ongoing internal political turbulence and regional tensions.

Watch For

Future INSS survey waves to track whether the public’s equal ranking of internal violence and Iranian nuclear threat persists or diverges, especially after any escalations in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, developments in Iran’s nuclear program, or domestic political crises. Monitor how these threat perceptions correlate with support for government policies—including judicial overhaul, West Bank annexation, or Iran diplomacy—and whether expert warnings on democratic backsliding gain traction among the wider public.