Inside Myanmar, rebels are losing ground as military forces men into army

What Happened

The State Administration Council (SAC) has shifted the momentum of the civil war in Myanmar by implementing a mandatory conscription law in 2024, which has provided the military with a surge in manpower. According to BBC reporting from Bago and Karen states, this influx of forced recruits has allowed the military to transition from a defensive posture to an offensive one, enabling them to retake key townships and a critical road connecting Mandalay to Myitkyina. PDF commanders Ko Kaung and Da Wa report that the military is now utilizing increased air power and drone capabilities, which they attribute to security cooperation with Russia. Resistance forces, including the People's Defence Forces (PDF), are currently facing resource constraints, limited access to weapons, and the impact of China-brokered ceasefires that have restricted their supply lines.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The military's ability to leverage forced conscription and advanced technology marks a significant reversal of the gains made by resistance forces during the 2023 Operation 1027. This shift threatens to consolidate junta control over critical border regions and supply routes, potentially undermining the long-term viability of the resistance movement as they struggle with equipment shortages and diplomatic pressure from regional neighbors.

Watch For

Monitor the military's progress in their ongoing advance toward the town of Hpapun in Karen state, where approximately 2,000 soldiers are reportedly moving to reclaim territory. Additionally, observe the impact of the junta's conscription policy on the stability of front lines in Kachin and Chin states, and whether resistance forces can secure the anti-drone jamming technology necessary to counter the military's increased aerial surveillance and strike capabilities.