Hunting down Kalibr missile carriers: how Ukraine has lured Russian frigates into a trap and is gradually taking them out

What Happened

Ukrainian forces have continued a targeted campaign against Russian Black Sea Fleet warships relocated to Novorossiysk after the September 2023 strikes on Sevastopol. On the night of 8-9 September, Ukraine's defence forces launched another strike on Novorossiysk using drones and domestically produced Neptune missiles, where the Kalibr-capable frigates Admiral Essen and Admiral Makarov are based, according to Ukrainska Pravda. The article, citing OSINT analysts from Plitka and CyberBoroshno, details earlier 2026 strikes: in March a combined strike of up to 200 drones and missiles hit Admiral Essen, causing an 18-hour fire that burnt out its PK-10 countermeasures launchers, TK-25 electronic warfare system, Fregat-M2M radar and MP-90 Orekh target illumination stations; Ukraine's General Staff confirmed both frigates damaged. In April, drones from the 1st Separate Drone Centre struck the Sheshkharis oil terminal and hit Admiral Essen near the bow by the A-190 gun mount and hull-mounted sonar, and Admiral Makarov near its berth and vertical launch systems. In late May, the same drone centre attacked Admiral Essen at the waterline. In August, a joint operation by Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, SBU, Ukrainian Navy, State Border Guard Service and the General Staff used Palianytsia jet-powered drones, Neptune cruise missiles and uncrewed surface vessels, hitting four vessels: both frigates, a Project 21631 Buyan-M-class small missile ship and a Vasily Bykov-class patrol vessel, plus an S-300 30N6E radar, the Grushovaya oil depot and an oil-loading jetty. Satellite imagery shows a through-hole on Admiral Makarov directly over its eight-cell 3S14 universal launcher for Kalibr missiles.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The systematic targeting of Admiral Essen and Admiral Makarov is aimed at degrading Russia's remaining ability to launch Kalibr cruise missiles at Ukrainian cities from the Black Sea. Novorossiysk, previously considered safer than Sevastopol, is now reachable by Ukrainian drones, Neptune missiles and uncrewed surface vessels, demonstrating Ukraine's extended precision-strike reach. Disabling these two frigates, among the few Black Sea Fleet ships capable of firing Kalibr, would significantly erode Russian naval strike capacity in the Black Sea and further undermine Moscow's maritime dominance in the region.

Watch For

Monitor further OSINT satellite imagery and Ukrainian General Staff statements to verify the extent of damage to Admiral Makarov's 3S14 Kalibr launcher and whether the frigates can be repaired or returned to service. Watch for possible Russian redeployments of remaining Black Sea Fleet vessels to other ports, additional Ukrainian strikes on Novorossiysk's naval base and oil infrastructure, and any Russian retaliatory missile or drone attacks on Ukrainian territory. Also follow Russian Ministry of Defence statements, which may deny or downplay the damage, and any changes in Black Sea Fleet Kalibr launch activity.