How to stop US-Iran conflict from becoming endless war

What Happened

A 14-point memorandum of understanding signed between Iran and the US in June offered a diplomatic opening, but renewed military confrontation quickly overwhelmed it. Over the past two weeks, direct US-Iran clashes disrupted maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, contributing to a surge in oil prices—Brent crude reached over $88 a barrel on Friday. The US reimposed a blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait, while President Trump discussed potentially 'taking over' Kharg Island and supporting cross-border operations by Kurdish armed groups. Iran responded by mobilising one million fighters to defend Kharg Island and targeting what it said were US bases, aircraft, and radar systems in Kuwait, Oman, Syria, Jordan, Bahrain, and Qatar. Iran also claimed to have struck an American command centre in Syria’s al-Tanf in retaliation for US strikes. On Monday, the Iran-backed Houthis declared a naval embargo against Saudi Arabia, widening the conflict. US Vice President JD Vance publicly argued that the US has no strategic interest in an endless war and that diplomacy—focused on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and a nuclear deal—is essential.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The intensifying US-Iran clashes risk spiralling into a protracted regional war that could paralyse critical maritime chokepoints (Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb), spike global energy prices, and draw in multiple state and non-state actors. The conflict has evolved into a war of attrition with no clear military solution, while internal US policy debates and Iranian mobilisation underscore the urgency of a diplomatic off-ramp to avoid a catastrophic, economically damaging stalemate.

Watch For

Whether the US and Iran pursue a new maritime security framework and nuclear negotiations, as urged by Vice President Vance; any Houthi escalation in the Red Sea; further disruptions to Hormuz shipping; domestic US political pressure on the Trump administration; and potential Israeli efforts to influence or undermine diplomacy.