How the fighting in Ethiopia spread beyond Tigray, in maps and charts

What Happened

Fighting intensified across northern Ethiopia in late September, concentrated in Tigray, Amhara, and Afar. Ethiopian government-aligned forces said they captured Alamata, a strategic town about 120km south of Mekelle, on September 28; on September 27 they retook Sekota in Wag Hemra zone. ACLED recorded 15–17 drone strikes on Alamata on September 22, including several schools and a hospital. A separate front opened near the Tekeze River in western Tigray, and clashes were reported around Kobo and Gidan in North Wello zone. Tigrayan forces and the Afar armed group Ugugumo advanced into Afar, with fighting along the Tigray-Afar border and around Erebti and Abala, potentially threatening the Semera-Djibouti corridor, Ethiopia's main import route including fuel. Telecommunications were cut across much of Tigray and commercial flights suspended. On September 20, seven armed and political groups announced the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, aimed at removing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government and establishing a transitional administration. The TPLF was described as the alliance's main military force and launched the latest offensive; other members include the Amhara Fano National Movement, the Oromo Liberation Army, Ugugumo, the Ogaden National Liberation Front, the Benishangul Peoples’ Liberation Movement and the Gumuz Peoples’ Democratic Movement. ACLED senior East Africa analyst Jalale Getachew Birru said the Gumuz group denied joining and has no armed wing; the ONLF is split; the OLA indicated its main interest is removing the government rather than coordinated military operations. ACLED assessed that only the TPLF, Amhara Fano National Movement, and Ugugumo were actively fighting federal forces as of September 26. Ethiopia's army chief accused Eritrea, Sudan's army, and Egypt of backing the armed groups; all denied, and Egypt said it strictly respects the sovereignty of neighbouring states.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The fighting shows unresolved disputes from the 2020–2022 Tigray war spreading into Amhara and Afar, and the formation of a multi-ethnic alliance seeking to overthrow the federal government. The Afar advance threatens the Semera-Djibouti corridor, Ethiopia's main route for fuel and imports, which could worsen economic and humanitarian conditions. The army chief's accusation against Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt raises the risk of regional escalation, while communication blackouts hinder verification and humanitarian access.

Watch For

Monitor whether the Alliance for Survival consolidates beyond the TPLF, Amhara Fano National Movement, and Ugugumo; ACLED reported only these three were actively fighting as of September 26, while the ONLF is split, the Gumuz group denied membership, and the Sidama National Liberation Front announced on September 25 it would join. Watch for fighting near the Semera-Djibouti corridor as Tigrayan and Ugugumo forces operate around Erebti and Abala; any disruption would affect Ethiopia's main fuel and import route. Also monitor whether Eritrea, Sudan, or Egypt respond militarily or diplomatically to the army chief's accusation, and whether telecommunications and flights resume in Tigray.