How Iran messaging highlights cost of war ahead of US midterm elections

What Happened

Ahead of the November 3 United States midterm elections, Iranian officials are directing English-language messaging at the American public to highlight the economic cost of the war that the United States and Israel launched against Iran on February 28. Iran's Parliament Speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf shared a news story on Wednesday reporting US inflation rising to 3.7 percent and posted a collage of negative economic headlines, directly addressing US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent with a message that referenced the percentage increase in inflation. He also shared an image showing diesel prices rising while housing affordability and consumer confidence fall. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) published a letter to the American public on September 29 accusing President Donald Trump of lying about war costs and claiming demand for American bonds has plummeted and countries are offloading US bonds. The report states Iran has disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz since the war began, sending US diesel prices to an all-time record of $6.33 per gallon and gas to $4.33, up from less than $3 before the war, and that the resulting inflation led the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates last month. Sina Toossi, a senior non-resident fellow at the Center for International Policy, said Tehran is trying to increase the political cost of the war for Trump by talking directly to the American public.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The messaging is an information-warfare effort aimed at exploiting US domestic economic discontent before the midterm elections, which could shift control of Congress and constrain President Trump's ability to continue the war. Trump has suggested he will either strike a deal with Iran or return to full-scale war after the November 3 elections, making the vote a potential turning point. Iran's disruption of Strait of Hormuz shipping directly links the conflict to American consumer costs, with diesel at a record $6.33 per gallon, and is shaping US Federal Reserve policy.

Watch For

The November 3 US midterm elections; any Democratic measures to withhold funding for the military campaign if they gain control of Congress; President Trump's decision after the vote on whether to pursue a deal or full-scale war with Iran; further Iranian attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and resulting energy price movements; and US Federal Reserve interest rate decisions.