Hormuz shipping traffic remains 70% below pre-war levels, UKMTO says

What Happened

The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained about 70 percent below pre-conflict levels in the seven days to October 28. A total of 277 vessel transits were recorded—155 inbound and 122 outbound—based on automatic identification system (AIS) observations and US-reported facilitated transits. AIS-observed transits increased to 64 from 47 the previous week, while US-reported facilitated movements remained broadly stable. The US Naval Cooperation and Guidance for Shipping (NCAGS) estimates that about 80% of transits through the strait involve energy carriers. Most vessels broadcasting AIS continued to use the Iranian route, though UKMTO reported an increase in traffic along the southern route. UKMTO said it had recorded 88 incidents in the Strait of Hormuz since the conflict began on February 28. The data suggest at least 35 attacks on shipping in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz in October, making it the worst month for attacks since the start of the war. March was the second-worst month, with about 30 attacks, according to UKMTO data.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies, and the reported 70 percent reduction in transit volumes, combined with October's 35 attacks—the worst monthly tally since February 28—signals an escalating maritime security crisis. With NCAGS estimating 80 percent of transits are energy carriers, sustained disruption threatens oil and gas flows, raises insurance and rerouting costs, and increases the risk of a broader Gulf maritime conflict.

Watch For

Monitor the next UKMTO weekly assessment for whether the October attack spike continues into November and whether the 70 percent transit deficit narrows or widens. Watch for any shift in AIS use between the Iranian and southern routes, any new NCAGS guidance to commercial shipping, and any state or coalition responses—such as naval escorts or strike attribution—that could alter security conditions in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.