Gulf states scramble for Strait of Hormuz alternative

What Happened

Energy exporters in the Gulf are attempting to bypass the Strait of Hormuz due to ongoing blockades and conflict-related risks. Saudi Arabia has successfully redirected significant oil volumes through its East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, with IMF PortWatch data indicating that exports through the Red Sea increased by 25.2 million tons between April and May 2026. Conversely, the United Arab Emirates has struggled to utilize its Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline and Fujairah port facilities, as traffic through these alternative routes declined during the same period. This decline is attributed to both limited physical capacity and the vulnerability of these sites to drone and missile strikes, which have previously targeted the port of Fujairah and vessels operating near the UAE's eastern coast.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The Strait of Hormuz historically carries approximately 20% of global crude exports, making its closure a significant disruption to international energy markets. The current conflict demonstrates that while pipeline infrastructure can mitigate some risks, these assets remain vulnerable to kinetic strikes and do not provide a complete solution to the security challenges posed by the ongoing war between Iran and its regional adversaries.

Watch For

Monitor the operational status of the East-West Pipeline and the ADCOP system, as well as any further Houthi-led maritime disruptions in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait. Additionally, observe whether regional states move forward with long-term, high-cost infrastructure proposals, such as the suggested Basra-Aqaba pipeline, which analysts estimate would take five to seven years to complete.