Future of western security is at stake in Yemen civil war, says country’s former PM

What Happened

Former Yemeni Prime Minister Maeen Abdulmalik Saeed stated that Houthi forces have launched a new military campaign to seize the south-western city of Taiz, effectively ending the relative calm established by the 2022 UN-brokered ceasefire. Saeed reported that Houthi units are attacking Taiz from four axes and are expanding control into rural areas and the Lahij governorate, including the al-Sabiha camp, with the stated objective of reaching Aden. Saeed claimed that the Houthis are leveraging Iranian-supplied long-range drone and missile technology to threaten maritime security in the Bab al-Mandab strait and Saudi oil infrastructure.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The potential fall of Taiz threatens the security of the Bab al-Mandab strait, a critical maritime chokepoint for global trade. Control over this region would grant the Houthis strategic leverage over the Red Sea coast and the seat of the UN-recognized Yemeni government in Aden, while further consolidating Iranian-aligned influence in the Arabian Peninsula.

Watch For

Monitor the potential for a full-scale siege of Taiz and the effectiveness of coordination efforts between the National Shield Forces, National Resistance Forces, and the Giants Brigades. Additionally, observe whether the mobilization call by Aidarous al-Zubaidi leads to a unified military front or exacerbates internal political divisions within the anti-Houthi coalition.