Future of southern Lebanon peacekeeping uncertain ahead of UNIFIL phase-out

What Happened

The mandate of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) is set to expire at the end of 2025, with no clear successor force agreed. The United States and Israel have sidelined UNIFIL from the current ceasefire framework, brokered by the US, which established 'pilot zones' in southern Lebanon where Israeli forces would withdraw and the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) would assume control. UNIFIL is excluded from these zones and from the ceasefire monitoring mechanism, reflecting shared US-Israeli scepticism of the mission. UN Secretary-General António Guterres has proposed replacement options ranging from 900 to 3,000 troops under the UN Truce Supervision Organization (UNTSO), a fraction of UNIFIL’s peak strength. Analysts warn that a security vacuum could emerge if no force is in place when the mandate lapses, while stressing that any peacekeeping mission cannot substitute for a broader political settlement addressing Hezbollah’s arms and Israeli withdrawals.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The sidelining of UNIFIL and the push for a smaller successor force risk creating a security vacuum in southern Lebanon, where the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah could unravel. Without a robust international presence, the LAF may struggle to assert control, Hezbollah’s disarmament is unlikely to be enforced, and the US-brokered pilot zones could become flashpoints, potentially reigniting cross-border violence and destabilising the region.

Watch For

Concrete next events include the UN Security Council’s decision on a post-UNIFIL force before the mandate expires at the end of 2025, progress on the pilot zones’ implementation where the LAF must take over from withdrawing Israeli troops, and whether the US-mediated direct talks between Lebanon and Israel yield a broader political agreement that addresses Hezbollah’s arms. Analysts will monitor any interim mediation or monitoring roles that could prevent a security gap if no replacement force is ready.