Former rebel turned government ally proposes a path to peace for Sudan

What Happened

Malik Agar Ayyir, deputy chairman of Sudan's transitional government and a former rebel leader now allied with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), proposed a national dialogue to end Sudan's civil war, according to a document obtained by Al Jazeera. The proposal calls for restoring the state's monopoly on arms, dissolving non-state armed groups, and building on the 2020 Juba peace deal. It seeks consensus among actors aligned with the internationally recognized government, addressing the role of the SAF, how to handle the conflict with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the role of external actors, and future governance. Agar's plan treats any direct SAF-RSF negotiations as a separate track entirely. The proposal follows the SAF's 2025 plan demanding RSF withdrawal before talks (rejected by the RSF), a November 2024 Quad initiative (US, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt) for a humanitarian truce (rejected by SAF as biased), and the December 2024 civilian-led Nairobi roadmap.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

Agar's proposal aims to unify government-aligned factions around a political roadmap, potentially consolidating SAF legitimacy while sidelining the RSF. It highlights the fragmentation of peace efforts, with competing SAF, civilian, and international tracks. The explicit separation of any SAF-RSF negotiations could deepen the diplomatic stalemate, while the focus on external actors, particularly the UAE, may further strain regional dynamics. If the dialogue gains traction, it could reshape the political landscape, but it risks entrenching divisions if dismissed by key civilian or international stakeholders.

Watch For

Monitor whether the dialogue convenes, and which government-aligned factions and civilian groups participate. Watch for reactions from the RSF, as exclusion may provoke military escalation. Also observe the Quad's response and any renewed tensions between the SAF and UAE over allegations of RSF support. The viability of the proposal will be tested against competing initiatives like the civilian-led Nairobi roadmap and any renewed UN or African Union mediation efforts.