First Thing: Trump calls Iran’s leaders ‘scum’ and declares fragile ceasefire over

What Happened

On Wednesday, the US military struck more than 80 targets around the Strait of Hormuz, according to the US military, in response to Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels transiting the strait a day earlier. Washington also revoked a temporary sanctions waiver for Iranian oil exports. President Donald Trump, speaking at a NATO summit in Ankara, declared the ceasefire memorandum of understanding with Iran over, calling Iran's leaders 'vicious, violent people' and 'scum', but indicated talks might continue. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed it had launched attacks on US military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait, hitting 85 facilities. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte backed the US strikes, stating Iran was violating the ceasefire. Oil prices rose 3% immediately after the escalation.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The collapse of the fragile ceasefire and direct military exchanges between the US and Iran raise the risk of a broader conflict that could threaten shipping through the critical Strait of Hormuz channel and destabilize global energy markets. Trump's inflammatory rhetoric and the revocation of the oil waiver signal a possible return to 'maximum pressure,' potentially isolating Iran further and increasing tensions with allies who may be caught in the crossfire.

Watch For

Monitor whether further tit-for-tat strikes occur between US and Iranian forces in the Gulf, and whether oil prices sustain their increase. Track any resumption of backchannel diplomacy—possibly via Oman—given Trump's suggestion that talks might continue. Also watch for statements from other NATO members and regional states on the escalation.