'Few cards to play': Saudi Arabia faces limited options against Houthis with allies out

What Happened

Saudi Arabia is facing simultaneous attacks from Houthi forces and Iran-aligned Iraqi militias. The East-West Pipeline, which allowed Saudi Aramco crude exports to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, was disabled by a drone attack from Iran-aligned militias in Iraq; loadings at the Red Sea port of Yanbu are suspended and Saudi Arabia cancelled some oil shipments to Europe on Tuesday. Houthi missiles and drones have hit Saudi cities, and a Houthi drone was shot down over Mecca, though the Houthis denied targeting Mecca. On the ground in Yemen, the Houthis advanced down the Red Sea coast, taking control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and pushing toward Taiz and Marib. The Saudi-backed, internationally recognised government of Yemen faces collapse if those cities fall, according to analysts. The National Resistance Forces, a militia previously backed by the UAE and holding Yemen's Red Sea coastline, melted away during the Houthi advance.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

Saudi Arabia's security is now directly threatened on two fronts, and its main oil export routes to Europe and Asia are compromised. The kingdom has few dependable allies on the ground in Yemen: the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council is capable but demands concessions Riyadh views as anathema, while Turkey and Pakistan have not shown up under the Mecca Pact. If Houthi forces take Taiz and Marib, the Saudi-backed Yemeni government could collapse, strengthening Iran's axis of resistance and giving the Houthis control over key maritime chokepoints.

Watch For

Monitor whether Houthi forces take Taiz or Marib, which analysts say would be disastrous for the Saudi-backed government. Watch for any resumption of loadings at Yanbu or further cancellations of Saudi oil shipments to Europe. Track whether the US-Houthi meeting brokered by Oman yields any de-escalation, and whether Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan or the UAE take more direct military action. Saudi Arabia is hosting a flagship investment conference next month, and any continued attacks could affect Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's Vision 2030 diversification plans.