Even in this age of what Mark Carney calls global rupture, do not despair: there is still hope for international law | Nathalie Tocci

What Happened

Following US-Israeli strikes on Iran, an MoU was agreed between the US and Iran, de facto recognizing Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz, with frozen Iranian assets expected to flow and oil sanctions temporarily waived as nuclear negotiations resume. In parallel, a France-UK led coalition of about 40 countries has assembled a taskforce to clear mines from the Strait of Hormuz and secure shipping, though deployment is contingent on Iranian consent. Norway has provided legal counsel to Iran and Oman, as well as Pakistani and Qatari mediators, to ensure compliance with UNCLOS freedom of navigation principles. The European Union is also considering a ban on imports from illegal Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, which would require only a qualified majority vote; a majority of member states already support the measure, with Germany the sole large country opposing.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The developments signal a potential inflection point where great-power military force fails to secure desired outcomes and international legal norms may reclaim relevance. The US-Iran MoU implicitly recognizes the limits of US-Israeli power, while European initiatives—though tentative—suggest a renewed, if uneven, commitment to multilateralism and international law. The EU settlement ban would mark a concrete shift toward holding Israel accountable for illegal actions in the occupied territories, testing Europe’s willingness to translate rhetoric into policy.

Watch For

Monitor whether the Hormuz taskforce proceeds without Iranian consent or if alternative arrangements emerge. Nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran will test the MoU’s durability. The EU’s qualified majority vote on settlement imports is a concrete legislative process to track, with Germany’s position as the decisive factor. Further mediation efforts by Norway and others on strait governance may shape regional maritime security.