Europe is under attack from three sides – but the EU and Nato are unfit to defend us | Nathalie Tocci

What Happened

European security is facing an increase in hybrid attacks, including an explosion at Leipzig airport attributed to Russia by German authorities, a Russian drone strike near the Ukraine-Poland border, an Italian jet intercepting a Russian drone over Lithuania, and a Russian warship firing flares at a Danish helicopter. These incidents have prompted European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to propose a new European security council and a mutual solidarity mechanism to address hybrid threats, potentially involving non-EU partners like Canada, the UK, and Ukraine.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The convergence of Russian hybrid aggression, potential shifts in United States foreign policy under Donald Trump, and the rise of far-right political movements within Europe has created a strategic vulnerability. Existing institutional frameworks like the EU and NATO are being questioned for their ability to respond rapidly to non-conventional threats, necessitating new security architectures that can function independently of US participation.

Watch For

Future developments regarding the proposed European security council, potential negotiations for associate EU membership for partners like Canada and the UK, and the ability of EU member states to overcome internal institutional resistance to centralizing security and defense policy.