Ethiopian forces expand control in Tigray as militia claims Eritrean losses

What Happened

Ethiopian government forces and allied Tigray Peace Force (TPF) fighters said they expanded control across Tigray and entered the historic city of Aksum. TPF spokesperson Solomon Hailemariam claimed that Eritrean forces had retreated toward the border and sustained significant casualties, but Eritrea's Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel rejected the claims as false. The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) documented Ethiopian government forces and TPF fighters entering Aksum while rival Tigrayan fighters remained in surrounding mountainous areas. ACLED also reported Eritrean troops withdrawing across the border through Zalambessa following Ethiopian advances into several strategic towns. Ethiopian forces captured Mekelle earlier this month, and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) confirmed it had withdrawn from the city and moved its regional administration 'temporarily' to another location. Government forces also retook Adwa and Adigrat without a fight, and there are reports of advances in Rama near the Eritrean border. ACLED documented Ethiopian tanks and heavy weapons moving toward the Eritrean border on Tuesday, raising concerns about a possible confrontation. A resident of Zalambessa, identified as Selam, told AFP that Ethiopian troops were on one side and Eritrean troops on the other, with no fighting now but no power or water for a week.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The reported positioning of Ethiopian and Eritrean forces on opposite sides of Zalambessa and the movement of Ethiopian tanks toward the border raise the risk of direct confrontation between the two countries, which fought together in the 2020-2022 Tigray War but have since severed diplomatic ties. Addis Ababa accuses Eritrea, Sudan, and Egypt of backing a seven-group rebel alliance against Abiy Ahmed, while Eritrea denies involvement and accuses Ethiopia of threatening its sovereignty. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio's call for de-escalation with Prime Minister Abiy reflects international alarm that renewed fighting could destabilize the Horn of Africa and draw in neighbouring states.

Watch For

Monitor ACLED and AFP reporting for any clash between Ethiopian and Eritrean forces near Zalambessa, Rama, or the border; watch for official statements from Addis Ababa and Asmara responding to the TPF casualty claims and Rubio's de-escalation call. Key indicators include whether Eritrean troops fully withdraw or return, whether TPLF fighters launch counteroffensives from mountain positions after losing Mekelle, Adwa, and Adigrat, and whether the US or African Union initiates formal diplomatic engagement. Also track the restoration of power and water in Zalambessa as a sign of local stabilisation.