Ethiopian armed groups forge alliance against government

What Happened

Seven Ethiopian armed groups, including the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), and the Amhara Fano National Movement, announced the formation of a coalition named the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival on Sunday. The alliance aims to overthrow the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and establish an inclusive transitional government. The coalition also includes the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), the Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front (Ugugumo), the Benishangul Peoples’ Liberation Movement, and the Gumuz Peoples’ Democratic Movement. The announcement follows the TPLF's declaration in mid-July that the 2022 Pretoria Agreement is effectively dead, alongside ongoing insurgencies in the Amhara and Oromia regions.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The formation of this alliance represents a significant shift in the Ethiopian security landscape, as it unites former adversaries—specifically the TPLF and Amhara Fano militias—who were on opposing sides during the 2020–2022 Tigray War. By consolidating opposition forces across multiple regions, the alliance threatens to escalate the existing localized insurgencies in Amhara, Oromia, and Tigray into a coordinated, multi-front challenge to the federal government's authority, potentially destabilizing the entire Horn of Africa.

Watch For

Monitor for the federal government's official response to the alliance and any subsequent military operations by the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) to counter the coalition. Additionally, observe whether the alliance can maintain internal cohesion given the historical territorial disputes between the TPLF and Amhara groups over Western Tigray, and watch for any further breaches of the 2022 Pretoria Agreement in northern Ethiopia.