Ethiopia must not be dragged back into war

What Happened

According to a participant in the 2022 Pretoria peace negotiations, a hardline faction of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has dismantled the Tigray Interim Regional Administration, established an illegal administration, and recruited, trained, and armed a fighting force with direct support from the Eritrean government. The author claims that Eritrea, under President Isaias Afwerki, brokered an alliance—dubbed ‘Tsimdo’—between TPLF hardliners and extremist elements within the Amhara Fano militia, with the joint goal of reigniting conflict in Ethiopia. The TPLF hardliners are allegedly preparing to launch an offensive against the federal government in the coming days, in clear violation of the Pretoria Agreement. The article warns that international pressure is urgently needed to prevent a return to full-scale war.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The Pretoria Agreement of November 2022 halted the devastating Tigray War, but this account highlights that spoilers—including internal hardliners and an external state actor—are actively working to dismantle it. A new offensive would not only plunge Tigray and possibly Amhara back into war, but also entrench Eritrea’s destabilizing role, worsen humanitarian suffering, and undermine federal authority, risking broader regional instability.

Watch For

Imminent claims of a TPLF hardliner offensive against federal forces; any formal dissolution or replacement of the Tigray Interim Regional Administration; public reactions from the Ethiopian federal government, the African Union, or key international partners (US, EU); and reports of Eritrean troop movements or material support entering Tigray. Also monitor for statements from TPLF leadership and Amhara Fano factions.