Ethiopia, Eritrea break ties: Does the conflict risk becoming regional war?

What Happened

Eritrea severed diplomatic relations with Ethiopia after Addis Ababa announced it would close its embassy in Asmara and expel 10 Eritrean diplomats. Eritrea's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Ethiopia's actions left it with 'no option but to reciprocate in kind and sever all diplomatic ties', accusing Ethiopia of a 'years-long agenda of incessant hostility' including infringing on coastal areas and arming fighters opposed to Eritrea's government. Ethiopia has likewise accused Eritrea of backing armed groups opposed to its government; both sides reject the other's accusations. Simultaneously, fighting continues in northern Ethiopia between Ethiopian federal troops and the TPLF-led Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, concentrated in Tigray, Amhara and Afar. Al Jazeera reported that pro-government forces made significant gains in Tigray, taking several towns and closing in on Mekelle, while a pro-government armed group in Afar claimed to have recaptured Erebti with 'magnificent air support' from the Ethiopian military. An explosion at Ethiopia's Ministry of Defence in Addis Ababa early Thursday was most likely caused by small drones, according to a diplomatic source quoted by AFP; ACLED noted rebel forces have previously used drones against airbases and airports.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The rupture between Ethiopia and Eritrea and renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia risk spilling into already unstable neighbours, particularly Sudan, where the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces are locked in a civil war that has caused mass displacement and famine. Chatham House's Ahmed Soliman said the conflicts in Ethiopia and Sudan have become more interconnected, with Addis Ababa and the Sudanese Armed Forces accusing each other of harbouring and equipping opposition forces. Egypt's simultaneous diplomatic expulsions with Ethiopia, rooted in the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam dispute, add another layer of regional escalation. For Sudan/Darfur watchers, Ethiopian accusations that Sudan is backing Tigrayan rebels and Sudan's counter-accusation that Ethiopia backs its rebels could intensify cross-border proxy dynamics and further destabilise the region.

Watch For

Monitor whether fighting reaches the major Tigray urban centres of Adwa, Axum, Shire and Mekelle, and whether pro-government forces continue their advance after taking several towns and Erebti. Watch for further diplomatic expulsions or escalation between Ethiopia, Eritrea and Egypt, and for any evidence substantiating claims of Eritrean, Egyptian or Sudanese support for the TPLF-led alliance. Also monitor whether drone attacks in Addis Ababa or elsewhere recur, and whether the Ethiopia-Sudan cross-border accusations translate into new military activity or proxy support that worsens Sudan's civil war.