Ethiopia election 2026: Tigray excluded and on edge

What Happened

Tigray remains excluded from Ethiopia's 2026 national elections, marking a decade of absence from federal parliamentary representation. TPLF spokesman Michaele Asgedom claimed that over 40% of Tigray's territory remains under enemy control, preventing the conduct of representative polls. On May 5, the TPLF unilaterally reinstated the Tigray State Council and elected Debretsion Gebremichael as regional president, challenging the federal government's previous appointment of Lieutenant General Tadesse Werede to lead the Tigray Interim Administration. Eyewitnesses and Human Rights First Ethiopia director Tesfalem Berhe reported that TPLF-aligned Tigray Defense Forces are conducting forced conscription of teenagers and former fighters, while journalists observed Ethiopian military aircraft over Mekelle on May 5 and 6.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The political impasse and the TPLF's unilateral restoration of regional governance structures threaten the stability of the 2022 Pretoria Agreement, which served as the primary mechanism for ending the civil war. The combination of federal disengagement, the absence of Tigrayan representation in national institutions, and reports of renewed military mobilization suggests a high risk of returning to active conflict.

Watch For

Monitor the federal government's response to the TPLF's reinstatement of the Tigray State Council and the potential for further military escalation in the region. Additionally, observe whether the TPLF attempts to consolidate control over contested territories or if federal forces respond to the reported recruitment activities by the Tigray Defense Forces.