Ethiopia blames regional rivals as risk of conflict spillover rises

What Happened

Over the weekend, Ethiopian army chief Birhanu Jula publicly accused Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of backing armed opposition groups inside Ethiopia, with Eritrea described as the go-between linking those external powers to the armed groups. He called the three countries Ethiopia's 'historical and contemporary adversaries' amid renewed fighting spreading across Tigray, Amhara and Afar. Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt all rejected the accusations. Egyptian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nader Zaki said Egypt's policy is based on full respect for sovereignty and noninterference, and former Egyptian Armed Forces Morale Affairs Department head Major-General Samir Farag called the accusations false. Sudan's military dismissed them as 'baseless' and in turn accused Ethiopia of supporting the Rapid Support Forces, which has been fighting the Sudanese Armed Forces since 2023; Ethiopia denied this. The accusations follow last week's announcement by seven Ethiopian opposition groups representing disparate ethnic groups and regions of a new coalition, and as fighting has spread across Tigray, Amhara and Afar. Mohammed Hussein, chairman of the Prosperity Party Afar Region Branch Office, estimated those three regions have a population of more than 38 million and include areas near the borders with Djibouti and Eritrea.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The exchange links Ethiopia's internal fighting to already strained regional disputes: the unresolved Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia, Sudan's accusations that Ethiopia has trained, supplied and hosted RSF forces, and Eritrea's alarm over Ethiopia's Red Sea access ambitions. If Addis Ababa continues framing its crisis as an external conspiracy while neighbours respond with counter-accusations, Ethiopia's conflict could expand beyond its borders, drawing in Djibouti and Eritrea and destabilising the Horn of Africa and Red Sea security.

Watch For

Monitor whether Eritrea, Sudan or Egypt take concrete diplomatic or military measures in response to the accusations; whether the seven-group Ethiopian opposition coalition issues demands or launches coordinated operations; and whether fighting in Afar near the Djibouti and Eritrea borders draws in neighbouring forces. Also watch for any evidence presented to substantiate Ethiopia's claims or Sudan's RSF-support allegation.