El-Obeid under siege by RSF: Could this be Sudan’s next el-Fasher?

What Happened

The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are besieging el-Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan state, with relentless drone attacks that have killed at least 50 civilians over ten days, damaged the power station causing blackouts and water disruptions, and hampered hospitals. About 500,000 people, including 105,000 displaced, are trapped. UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk warned on Friday of an impending humanitarian ‘catastrophe.’ An international coalition including Norway, the UK, Canada, France, Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands, Sierra Leone, and 21 other countries issued a statement expressing grave alarm over the risk of atrocities and deliberate killings, citing ethnically targeted violence and sexual and gender-based violence. The RSF seeks to cut el-Obeid off from army-controlled eastern regions and consolidate control over Kordofan and Darfur. The siege mirrors the RSF’s 18-month siege of el-Fasher, which fell in October 2025, where Amnesty International alleged ethnic cleansing and a UN mission reported ‘hallmarks of genocide.’ Analysts note that the pervasive drone attacks create siege conditions without full encirclement, potentially leading to famine. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) maintains the 5th Infantry Division and an airbase in the city, and earlier expelled the RSF from Khartoum in March 2025.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

El-Obeid’s fall would give the RSF control of a pivotal road junction linking Darfur to central Sudan, sever SAF supply lines and isolate the army in Kordofan, while enabling the RSF to connect its western strongholds to the rest of the country—a strategic shift that could reshape the war. The city’s half-million trapped civilians face a high risk of famine and mass atrocities, echoing the ethnic cleansing and genocide allegations that followed the RSF’s capture of el-Fasher. The drone-driven siege without full encirclement represents an evolution in the conflict’s tactics, and the international community’s failure to prevent a repeat of el-Fasher’s catastrophe despite early warnings highlights the deepening humanitarian crisis.

Watch For

Observe whether RSF ground forces launch a direct assault on el-Obeid following the sustained drone campaign, or if SAF reinforces or withdraws its 5th Infantry Division. Monitor for any declarations of famine by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), the establishment of humanitarian corridors, or further diplomatic interventions from the Coalition for Atrocity Prevention and Justice for Sudan. Note that major ground clashes are expected imminently, as warned by the UN on 21 March 2025.