Do Palestinians in Gaza expect anything to change after Israel’s election?

What Happened

Ahead of Israel's election on Tuesday, Palestinians in Gaza told Al Jazeera they are watching the vote with fear and uncertainty, fearing that the next government could bring more war, displacement, and restrictions. The article reports that despite a 'ceasefire' in place since October 2025, Gaza residents continue to endure almost daily Israeli air strikes, dire living conditions, and a punishing siege causing shortages of basic goods. Interviewees include Mohammed Eliyan, 36, displaced from Jabalia refugee camp to Deir el-Balah with his five children, who hopes former Israeli military commander Gadi Eisenkot defeats Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu; Islam Salem, 41, displaced from Beit Lahiya with three daughters, who says Israeli policy will not change; Hanan Abu al-Maaza, 57, displaced more than 12 times, who fears a worse outcome; and Manar Owaida, 23, originally from northern Gaza and now in Tal al-Hawa, Gaza City. Netanyahu has faced criticism for security failures before the 7 October 2023 Hamas-led attacks, while members of his far-right government have called for a tougher line, including expulsion of Gaza's population. Some Gazans hope a change in leadership might ease restrictions, allow return to homes, and end the war, but others, citing Israel's continued control of about 65 percent of Gaza's territory inside the 'Yellow Line' and destruction of more than 80 percent of buildings with about two-thirds completely destroyed, expect no major shift.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The Israeli election outcome will directly shape Gaza's humanitarian and security trajectory: continuation or easing of the siege, restrictions at crossings, reconstruction prospects, and possible annexation or expulsion policies. With more than 80 percent of buildings damaged and Israel reportedly controlling about 65 percent of Gaza's territory inside the 'Yellow Line', the next government's approach could determine whether displaced families can return and whether the ceasefire holds or renewed military operations resume.

Watch For

Monitor the Israeli election results on Tuesday and subsequent coalition negotiations, especially whether Netanyahu's Likud and far-right allies retain power or Gadi Eisenkot's bloc forms the government. Watch for policy statements from the next Israeli government on Gaza crossings, reconstruction permits, the 'Yellow Line' control zone, and any renewed calls for population expulsion. Also monitor whether the almost daily air strikes and siege conditions in Gaza change in the days after the election, and track responses from displaced communities in Deir el-Balah and Gaza City.