Deadly RSF drone attacks reveal deep divisions between Sudan and Ethiopia

What Happened

The Sudanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs and military intelligence have accused Ethiopia of facilitating a campaign of drone strikes against Sudanese territory. According to a report from the Transitional Sovereignty Council, 70 separate assaults involving 187 one-way attack drones were launched from Ethiopian locations—specifically Asosa Airport, the Kurmuk-Gizen border area, and the Bahir Dar airbase—between February and October. The Sudanese government claims these strikes have killed 176 soldiers and 484 civilians, while rendering over 90 percent of power stations in affected cities inoperable. Ethiopia has denied these allegations, countering that the Sudanese government is providing support to rebels associated with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The allegations threaten to expand the Sudanese civil war into a regional conflict, further destabilizing the Horn of Africa. The dispute exacerbates existing tensions over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and complicates the security landscape for both nations, as Sudan remains embroiled in a domestic war while Ethiopia manages internal regional insurgencies.

Watch For

Monitor the outcomes of the formal complaints lodged with the UN Security Council and the African Union’s Peace and Security Council. Additionally, observe whether the SAF takes any escalatory military steps along the border or if the frequency of drone attacks continues to increase, as recorded in the October data.