Could US pull one-third of troops from Europe? What that would mean

What Happened

The US Pentagon is reviewing options to reduce its military footprint in Europe, with senior commanders expected to submit plans to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in the coming days, according to NBC News, which cited security sources. One option would withdraw one-third of the estimated 68,000 US troops stationed in Europe, mainly affecting Germany, Italy and Spain; a second scenario would remove 40,000 soldiers along with aircraft, ships and weapons, and troops could also be repositioned from Central or Western Europe to NATO's eastern flank. Hegseth has said European allies' refusal to grant US forces access to European bases to launch attacks on Iran was 'shameful' and that NATO changes are designed to move Europe to take primary responsibility for its own defense. The review follows previous withdrawals: about half of 2,000 US soldiers stationed in Romania left last year, and 5,000 troops are in the process of withdrawing from Germany after German Chancellor Friedrich Merz criticized the US war on Iran; Secretary of State Marco Rubio reportedly blocked a White House push to withdraw as many as 25,000 soldiers.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

A major drawdown would shift NATO's defense burden and potentially reduce US ability to project power across Europe, at a time when European governments are raising alarms about Russian sabotage and the war in Ukraine continues. Ian Lesser of the German Marshall Fund said a mass exit would undermine the US nuclear deterrence posture on the continent, though he said Russia is not likely to attack NATO members and the effect depends on where and when troops are removed. Senior Republican lawmakers warned the move could signal weakness to Russian President Vladimir Putin, while the review is driven by transatlantic friction over base access for Washington's war on Iran, defense spending, tariffs, and Greenland, which could accelerate European military autonomy but also strain alliance cohesion.

Watch For

Watch for Hegseth's final decision by November 6, as reported by NBC News; the submission of Pentagon options 'in the coming days'; completion of the 5,000-troop withdrawal from Germany; and any Congressional response to a new withdrawal announcement. NATO's 3.5 percent GDP defense spending target by 2035 and any further US pressure for European base access in the Iran conflict will also test the durability of the current force posture.