Ceasefires and construction: How Israel is cementing its presence in Lebanon and Syria

What Happened

Since its October 2024 invasion of Lebanon, Israel has constructed and expanded permanent-looking military bases in southern Lebanon and Syria, according to analysis of satellite imagery and multiple sources. At five positions along the Lebanon-Israel border—including Labbouneh (150 metres from a UNIFIL base) and Tal Dowary near Houla—the IDF has widened roads, erected watchtowers, and added accommodation units and vehicles between October 2024 and November 2025, with work accelerating after a 27 November 2024 ceasefire agreement that required full withdrawal within 60 days. A Lebanese military source told Middle East Eye: 'If you are planning to withdraw, you do not carry out this much work.' A source close to Hezbollah described the bases as 'designed defensively, making it impossible to approach them, while also allowing offensive operations to be launched from them.' Israeli soldiers told Haaretz the outposts 'are permanent… that will be manned for a long time.' Israel also seized Beaufort Castle and Mount Hermon in Syria, developing similar fortifications. Despite the ceasefire, Israel refused to leave the five positions after the deadline and a subsequent extension. Hostilities resumed in early March 2025 following the killing of Iran’s Ali Khamenei, with Hezbollah attacking Israel and tearing down an Israeli flag near al-Bayyada. A new US-backed ceasefire proposal put forward last Thursday made no mention of Israeli withdrawal from the occupied areas.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

Israel’s construction of fortified bases in violation of the November 2024 ceasefire agreement risks entrenching a long-term occupation of Lebanese and Syrian territory, mirroring its 1982–2000 presence. This undermines the ceasefire and Lebanese sovereignty, inflames tensions with Hezbollah, and complicates UNIFIL’s monitoring mandate. The US-backed proposal omitting withdrawal suggests diminished diplomatic pressure, potentially enabling further expansion and setting a precedent for unilateral buffer zones. Renewed cross-border violence highlights the fragility of the security situation and the difficulty of any durable settlement.

Watch For

Monitor whether the new US-backed ceasefire proposal is accepted and if Israel halts construction or withdraws from any positions. Track Hezbollah’s military response and any further flag-down or probing operations near Israeli outposts. Watch for Israeli announcements on new outposts approved by Netanyahu, as reported by Haaretz. Satellite imagery updates may reveal continued fortification work, especially at Mount Hermon and the five Lebanon border sites. The approaching end of UNIFIL’s mandate in 2027 may alter the monitoring landscape.