Bluster and backdown have turned Iran war into Trump’s own Groundhog Day

What Happened

Since 28 February, the United States—in tandem with Israel—has been engaged in a military campaign against Iran. President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened devastating strikes, including a claimed "massive" attack that would have been "the biggest since world war two," only to call off the operation at the last moment, citing allied appeals and the prospect of a deal. This pattern has recurred at least seven times, most recently over the past weekend when Trump told reporters on board Air Force One that he had halted the strike because "I think there’s a deal." Negotiations between Iran and Oman over shipping in the Strait of Hormuz have not yet produced an agreement, and the vital waterway remains closed. Trump has also claimed multiple times that the U.S. has "virtually" won the war and that Iran’s leaders "want to make a deal," assertions contradicted by Iran’s continued ability to inflict damage on U.S. and allied targets in the Middle East.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The cycle of threats and retreats exposes a lack of coherent U.S. strategy and a fundamental misreading of Iran’s political psychology, potentially undermining American deterrence and credibility in the region. With the U.S. congressional midterms approaching in November, Trump’s failure to convert military pressure into a durable deal risks becoming an electoral liability, as public mockery of his shifting claims mounts.

Watch For

Whether a concrete agreement mediated by Oman emerges in the coming weeks, the status of the Strait of Hormuz reopening, and any further iterations of the threat-and-backdown pattern as the U.S. congressional midterm campaign intensifies.